Simulation assumptions
Means (μ) and volatilities (σ) come from the Portfolio tab. Inflation is drawn stochastically each year.
Simulations
1,000 runs
Independent random market paths
Accumulation return (μ)
7.0%
Mean annual return while working — from Step 5
Retirement return (μ)
5.0%
Mean annual return after retirement
Volatility working (σ)
10.0%
From Portfolio tab selection
Volatility retirement (σ)
6.0%
From Portfolio tab selection
Inflation (μ)
2.5%
Applied to expenses, SS, salary base
Inflation (σ)
1.00%
Stochastic annual draw
Salary growth
3.0%
Annual raise during working years
Distribution
Normal (Gaussian)
Box-Muller; success = balance > 0 at life expectancy
Inflation volatility
Historical US ≈ 1.0–1.5%
Success probability
25.5%
74.5% of runs depleted
Median ending balance
$0
At age 90
10th percentile (bad case)
$0
Worst 10% of outcomes
90th percentile (good case)
$3,444,599
Top 10% of outcomes
Portfolio fan chart
Shaded bands show the 10–90% and 25–75% range of outcomes across 1,000 simulations. Solid line = median.
Ending balance distribution (age 90)
10th percentile
$0
25th percentile
$0
Median percentile
$0
75th percentile
$33,113
90th percentile
$3,444,599
Required nest egg target
In nominal (future) dollars
$2,724,784
In today's dollars
$1,148,145
How these simulations work